Super Bowl First Player to Score Props Picks 2014
by Aaron Smith - 1/28/2014
Anquan Boldin was the first player to score in Super Bowl XLVII last year at the Superdome in New Orleans. The Ravens ended up winning the Super Bowl, while the 49ers and the lights at the Superdome were the big losers last year.
Super Bowl XLVIII is historic in that it will be played outdoors in a cold weather environment at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The action gets underway Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30 p.m. There are always plenty of interesting prop bets out there for the Super Bowl, but none of them are more wide open than the first to a score a touchdown prop.
This is one of those props that seems so straight forward, but it really isn’t. A bunch of guys who are far from well-known have snuck into the end zone first in the past. Zeke Mowatt and Howard Twilley are far from big names, but their names are both among those who were the first to break the plane of the goal line in the biggest game of them all.
It’s the running backs that get the most love from the oddsmakers on this prop bet nearly every year, but they haven’t been the most frequent to find the end zone first in the past. In 22 of the 47 Super Bowls, it has been a wide receiver that has scored a touchdown first. The running back position has been the first to find the end zone in 16 Super Bowls. There’s a big drop off to third-place position, which is tight ends. Tight ends have been the first to score a touchdown in four Super Bowls.
Quarterbacks have only been the first to get into the end zone on two occasions. Joe Montana did it on a quarterback sneak in Super Bowl XIX. Ben Roethlisberger did it on a quarterback sneak in Super Bowl XL.
There have been four occasions in Super Bowl history where the first person to score a touchdown came from the defense or special teams. Two kick returners have done it with a kickoff return for a touchdown. Devin Hester was the most recent in Super Bowl XLI. Stanford Jennings did it for the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII. What about the two defensive players to score first? Ty Law returned an interception for a touchdown in Super Bowl XXVII. In Super Bowl XVIII, Derrick Jensen recovered a blocked punt and scored for the Raiders.
As tempting as it might look to bet on “No TD scored in the game" as a long shot bet, keep in mind that in the history of 47 Super Bowls, there hasn’t been one without a touchdown.
Predicting who will be the first to score a touchdown is very difficult, which means there is often value on the players with longer odds. Playing the favorite on a prop like this isn’t going to get you ahead in the long run.
Here is a breakdown of the odds on the first player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XLVII according to odds from BetOnline:
Marshawn Lynch (+500) Lynch is the Seahawks main man in the backfield, and he has 14 touchdowns on the season. Lynch is a threat out of the backfield to catch the ball, too, which gives him some extra value. He has 36 receptions on the season. He also doesn’t have to compete with other guys stealing carries from him very often. He’s the favorite for a reason.
Knowshon Moreno (+600) Things aren’t as clear-cut for the Broncos as they have three running backs with at least 55 carries this year. He has just one touchdown in his last five games, so I don’t see too much value here.
DeMaryius Thomas (+600) To say that DeMaryius Thomas has come on strong late in the season would be a major understatement. Thomas has five touchdown receptions in his last four games. He has at least six receptions in the team’s last four games. I like the value on Thomas.
Eric Decker (+650) Eric Decker has 11 touchdown receptions on the year. He had four in a single game against the Chiefs, but he has also had stretches where he goes a long time without scoring. He has only seven catches and no touchdown receptions in the postseason thus far.
Julius Thomas (+650) Thomas had six touchdown receptions in the team’s first five games, but he has only one touchdown catch in their last five contests. Thomas has been a consistent performer overall though. He has at least three receptions in every game this season.
Wes Welker (+800) Welker doesn’t quite have the numbers of several of the Broncos other pass catchers, but that’s primarily because of his injury issues this year. There’s no doubt that Manning and Welker make a great combination, and there could be some value here.
Russell Wilson (+1,200) Quarterbacks have been the first to score a touchdown only twice, but you could make a case for Russell Wilson. If the weather is poor as is currently being predicted, Wilson’s running ability could give him some extra value playing in the elements.
Here is the full list of odds for the first player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (+500)
Knowshon Moreno, Denver (+600)
DeMaryius Thomas, Denver (+650)
Eric Decker, Denver (+650)
Julius Thomas, Denver (+650)
Wes Welker, Denver (+800)
Percy Harvin, Seattle (+1,000)
Golden Tate, Seattle (+1,000)
Doug Baldwin, Seattle (+1,200)
Montee Ball, Denver (+1,200)
Andre Caldwell, Denver (+1,200)
Jermaine Kearse, Seattle (+1,200)
Russell Wilson, Seattle (+1,200)
Jacob Tamme, Denver (+1,200)
Zach Miller, Seattle (+1,200)
Luke Wilson, Seattle (+1,500)
Robert Turbin, Seattle (+1,500)
Virgil Green, Seattle (+2,000)
No TD scored in the game (+6,600)