Boston vs. Cleveland, 08/12/2019 19:10 EDT, Score: 5 - 6

Total: -109/+10½ Over

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Win

8* Over Red Sox/Indians (7:10 ET): This is a very critical series for Boston, who is currently 7.5 games out of the Wild Card in the American League. Cleveland currently occupies one of those two WC spots, but they are also now tied w/ the Twins atop the AL Central after taking three of four in Minnesota over the weekend. Winning the division is out of the question for the Red Sox, who are 16 games back of the first place Yankees in the East. Really, if they were to lose this series, it would be difficult to like Boston's chances of getting back to the playoffs as they would be facing an even larger deficit while having to jump two teams (Oakland, Tampa Bay).

Everything went right for the Red Sox last year en route to winning their 4th World Series in 15 seasons. But 2019 has proven to be more challenging. The starting rotation has been really lousy. The bullpen has been no better as Sunday marked their 22nd blown save, tied for the most in all of baseball. They lost 5-4 to the Angels, a game in which I had the Under and it still cashed despite going 10 innings. You might look at Monday starter Eduardo Rodriguez's 17-6 TSR and think he's the man to right the ship. But Rodriguez has a 4.19 ERA and 1.315 WHIP. The Over is also 17-6 in those 23 starts, including 11-2 on the road. He's walked 31 batters in his last 61 IP.

The last time these teams met was back in May and all three games in the series went Over. The fewest number of total runs scored in any game was 12. Of coure, a lot has changed since May. After losing to the Angels both Saturday & Sunday, Boston is just 3-11 their L14 games. Meanwhile, Cleveland is humming along w/ a 42-17 record their L59 games. The Indians go w/ Zach Plesac here. He has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts and is coming off arguably his sharpest effort to date. But Boston does average 5.7 runs per game (3rd most in MLB) and will be a greater challenge than Texas was. The Over is 4-0 for Plesac the L4 times he's been off a quality start. 8* Over Red Sox/Indians

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